Florida Sea Base News

Good early morning from the Florida Sea Base.  It’s about 04:00 and I decided to get up and drain some of the congestion from my head.  I hate being sick and I am NOT a good patient.

I have nothing to talk about except the weather.  The local weather is still typical for summer; high of 90, low of 85, east wind at 15 and some chance of rain.  Hurricane Danielle is no threat.  The winds from Tropical Storm Earl are 9 mph short of hurricane status.  Earl will clip the northern most Lesser Antilles and will hope fully stay east of the Bahamas and only be a rain event for us.  Invest 97 is forecasted to follow the same course as Earl.  There is wave after wave easing across Africa and this chain of invest to tropical depression to tropical storm to hurricane to where will the hurricane hit is going to be a daily event for a while.  The African storms are the ones that have the most time to build into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).  In a few more weeks, we will see hurricanes being born in the Caribbean.  They like to visit Florida.

A day rarely goes as planned at the Florida Sea Base but here are my plans for today.  First, go back to bed for a while.  Then see how I’m feeling.  If I feel up to it and it doesn’t rain, I have some mechanic work to do on my truck.  Plan B is to work on winter staff hiring and Divemaster Academy applications in the office.

Divemaster Joe Schreiner forwarded this link to me (from one of his participants I believe).  It’s an interesting article about water temperatures affecting fish behavior. http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/60940/title/Ocean_acidification_may_make_fish_foolhardy_

Make it a good day.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

We made it through the night at the Florida Sea Base without a thunderstorm.  I apologize for posting this late, but I have caught a cold and I slept in a bit this morning.  Please excuse any typos.  I am jacked up on NyQuil® and Alka Seltzer Plus®; plus the gallon of diluted hydrochloric acid (brand name Afrin®) I have squirted into my left nasal over night.

I am sitting on Escape, sipping on hot, black coffee and hoping my left sinus passages will drain soon.  Currently there is no rain within 100 miles of the Florida Sea Base.  At 08:00 it was 85º and we will get in the low 90s this afternoon.  The wind is 10 to 15 from the east and the skies are mostly clear.  In short, it is a gorgeous summer day.

The tropical weather is very busy.  Hurricane Danielle has made it to Category 4 status but is turning east and will only affect shipping interests.

Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to be a Cat 1 hurricane on Saturday night, Cat 2 on Tuesday and Cat 3 on Wednesday.  It is forecasted to turn north but will come closer than Danielle.

Then there is Invest 97L.  It’s too early for the computers and experts to make even an educated guess about the path of 97.  There is a high pressure system in place that has turned Danielle and should turn Earl to the north and then east.  97 may follow the same trajectory.  But there is a chance of Earl slipping south of the high pressure system and becoming an issue at the Florida Sea Base.

Stay tuned!!!

The first round of my budget did well.  We had a meeting on 04 August and used a crystal ball to predict the 2011 attendance figures.  Those are in turn used to set our projected income.  So we pitch our best guess and reasoning to the GM who ultimately decides the magic number.  He reduced my magic number yesterday which reduced my income projection by $175,000.  That stings a little but is not a huge obstacle.  The good news was that my preliminary spending figures were unscathed.

Since I haven’t gotten off the boat yet I’m not sure what the seasonal staff are doing but I have a good general idea.  Capt. Alex and Dave are probably working on scuba tank maintenance, Lindsay probably helping them or filling orders for used scuba gear, and Capt. Aaron is probably helping Capt. Carol with boat maintenance or working on sailing program equipment.  The facilities staff is working on the Thomas Building conversion from staff housing to conference housing.   The galley staff is working on lunch and dinner.

My understanding is we are scheduled to take two Newtons and maybe the Corinthian dive boat from the Brinton Center to the boat yard on Monday.  (I had an English teacher tell me a long time ago that you can’t have a one sentence paragraph.  So here are two more sentences.)

I haven’t heard a peep from the Wyatts.  I hope they aren’t in jail for killing the contract who was working on their house while they were working here this summer.  He seems to be VERY slow but does good work and charges by the job, not by the hour.

Again, I apologize for this being late.  I’m going to fix something to eat and then I will consider going into the office.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Good morning from the Florida Sea Base.  We are expecting a high of 91º this afternoon with a heat index of 105º.  The winds will be from the SSW at 12 knots with 2′ seas on the reef.  There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm.  By 05:00 Tropical Depression 6 had been upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle.  It is forecasted to be a Category 1 Hurricane by 02:00 tomorrow morning.  The good news is the forecasted track continues to be in our favor with the system turning more to the north.

The final crew of the 2010 summer season has elected to spend their final day at the Bahia Honda State Park.  They visited there two years ago on their first trip to the Florida Sea Base and requested to go back.  Since they are the only crew left at the Florida Sea Base it was easy to accommodate their request.

There are a few straggling staff members packing for the trip home, but the only season employees left on payroll includes Scuba Commissioner Capt. Alex Bergstedt, Marine Superintendent Capt. Carol Chapman, Scuba Instructor Christy Clemenson, Dockmaster Dominic Alesandrini, Galley Mates Maya Mikolova and Lenka Bollonova, Capt. Dennis Wyatt, Office Manager Ellen Wyatt, Assistant Ranger Capt. Martin Ivy, Assistant Ranger Joe Schreiner, Commissary Mate Sara Starr, Capt. Aaron Foster, Eco Adventure Mate Lindsay Kuc, Divemaster David Rumbaugh, Capt. Dutch Vanderlaan, Ships Store Clerks Jan Vanderlaan and Noah Sutter, Capt. Steve Harrison,and Ships Store Manager Maria Donovan.  (Maria is technically still a seasonal employee but will be promoted to the full time staff on 01 September.)  Divemaster Brittany Haury is still on base but off payroll.  She starts her Instructor Development Course tomorrow (I think) and will be a certified Scuba Instructor in less than two weeks if all goes well.

A friend from back home sent this this photo.  It was reportedly taken near Rising Star, Texas on Friday the 13th of August 2010.

I meant to post this earlier today but got caught up with the budget until noon and then I had to make a run to Key West.  I hope you had a good day.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

It was a glorius day at the Florida Sea Base.  The last Coral Reef Sailing crew and the next to last Scuba Liveaboard crew returned to the Florida Sea base for their luau.  We have one Scuba Liveaboard crew still on the water.  All other programs have ended for the summer 2010 summer program season.  We will almost certainly complete the summer program season without a hurricane!!!

Speaking of hurricanes, the system off the west coast of Africa is becoming better organized and has been officially designated Invest 95L.  The following is from Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:35 AM EST on August 20, 2010

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 – 10 mph to 15 – 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The long term steering current forecast from the GFS model indicates an above-average chance of recurvature of storms approaching the U.S. East Coast through the end of August, followed by a near-average chance of recurvature for the first week of September.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms, and the wave does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore tonight or Saturday.

This blog is supposed to be about news from the Florida Sea Base.  And I will get to that.  But first, I am shocked by the news in Moscow.  I watch very little TV so I hadn’t heard anything about this until I read Dr. Jeff Master’s WunderBlog last evening.  His headline read, “Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more”.  I thought it must be a typo until I read the article.  330 people dying per day from heat and high carbon monoxide levels.  I can’t comprehend that.  I can understand a heat wave in Moscow, Texas (90 miles north of Houston and 30 miles south of Lufkin where I started my law enforcement career).  But Moscow, Russia?  Whatever your thoughts are on global warming, a heat wave in Moscow, Russia is mind boggling.  Moscow, Texas has a population of approximately 170.  At 330 deaths per day, well, you do the math.  In about 12 hours the town would be unpopulated.

Okay.  Back to Florida Sea Base News.  April Oster works in the Ships Store and has applied for the Divemaster Academy for this winter.  Her mom, Lois, stopped by the Florida Sea Base yesterday.  It was a pleasure to meet her.  Among other talents, Lois hand makes glass figurines.  VERY impressive.  I have NO artistic abilities.  Well, maybe two.  I was once musically inclined (you are very welcome my son) and I’m fairly artistically inclined when it comes to embellishing a story.  But not artsy stuff.  My musical abilities were transfered to my son who now makes a very good living in the music industry.  I’m still pretty good at getting the staff to buy in to some pretty wild stories.  What’s even better is that most of the ones they don’t believe are basically true.

We experienced quite a bit of light to medium rain at the Florida Sea Base yesterday.  It is unusual for us to get long soaking rains like that.  Invest 94 is to blame.  She made it across the Florida Peninsula yesterday and is now in the Gulf of Mexico working her way west and north.  The forecast calls for 60% chance of rain today but tapering off for the rest of the week.  Rain is better than a hurricane.  It’s all about perspective.  The winds were brisk, about 15 knots from the SSW to SW all night.  That’s an unusual angle for us and the captains out on the water probably had some challenges finding good anchorages.  Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center on Invest 94:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH
UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are an important factor in hurricane formation.  If your read Dr. Masters’ blog referenced above you will see that SSTs remain at record high temperatures – one of the reasons for the continued forecast for multiple major hurricanes yet to come this year.

Today looks like 15 knots from the southwest, light rain off and on, and highs in the upper 80s.  Not perfect.  But still better than a hurricane.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

We enjoyed a little rain today at the Florida Sea Base.  It really helped cool things down but was not severe enough to curtain program activities.  Today’s forecast is 90 degrees, 5 – 10 knot winds from the southeast, and 20% chance of rain.

BP has declared the “static kill” of the Deepwater Horizon site a success.  The process of cleaning up will last a long time and cost more money than I can comprehend.  The New York Times reports:

Updated: Aug. 5, 2010
Latest News
Static Kill of the Gulf Oil Well Is Called a Success

BP claimed a milestone Wednesday as an operation that pumped heavy drilling mud to plug its oil well seemed to be working. Officials repeated that the work would not end until the beaches and marshes were clean, and that crews would not leave until local officials were satisfied.  [Click HERE for the full story.]

Colorado State University released their updated forecast for the remainder of the 2010 hurricane season on Wednesday.  Essentially their numbers did not change from the June forecast; 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  Thursday, Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. released their updated forecast; 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes and 4.8 intense hurricanes.  Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground called this “a very aggressive forecast”.  Dr. Masters feels it is simply getting a little too late in the season to amass this many storms.  Let’s hope he is correct.  For now, tropical threats to the Florida Sea Base are not expected for at least a week or longer.

Capt. Rich hosted the first of two captains appreciation dinners last night.  I’m sure they had a great time.

Daily new crew arrivals are starting to dwindle a little as the season is nearing its end.  The staff is starting to dwindle a bit too.  The staff is doing a tremendous job.  In some individual conversations I had yesterday with some returning staff members, they too expressed pleasure with how well this year’s staff members were working together as a team.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

The weather is still very warm at the Florida Sea Base.  We have an increased chance for some rain today (40%) but if we get any rain at all it is likely to be spotty.  Tropical Storm Colin is working its way slowly to the northwest and we will continue to monitor it.  The “Ship’s Intensity Model” is predicting the winds will top out near 68 mph three to four days from now.  The National Hurricane Center is predicting a 20% chance of Colin becoming a Category 1 Hurricane on Saturday.

T/S Colin - Weather Underground

I’m glad that it is not headed to the Gulf of Mexico and I hope BP can take advantage of this good fortune and get the Deepwater Horizon well shut down before the next storm.

Yesterday was a good day here.  The skies were a little overcast at times but we missed the rain.  It was warm but nothing like back home in Texas.  Speaking from personal experience, when the weather is 104+ back home it’s like being in a dry sauna.  You literally breathe the hot air into your lungs.  The highs are forecasted to be at 100+ for the next week.  I remember when I used to bail and haul hay for a living at this time of year.  Brutal.

I get to drive one of the dive boats this morning.  I will be back before noon.  As long as we are able to dodge the rain, we should have flat seas and great visibility.  The water temperature is 86º F.  That’s great for the divers and snorkelers but it is hard on the coral reefs.  The corals are very temperature sensitive.  This winter’s record setting cold water temperatures (as low as 60º F at Molasses Reef) and now very high temperatures is making life very difficult for the corals.

I have been interviewing applicants for the fall staff.  I can only hire two people and I have several EXCELLENT applicants.  This is going to be a tough decision and I may have to borrow Meghann Michalski’s basket of ping-pong balls to resolve this.  [That may warrant a brief explanation.  We have 200+ Scouts at the morning and evening flag ceremony.  When the crews are dismissed from flags they go directly to the Galley for breakfast or dinner.  To help stagger the dismissal and better control the stampede for the food line, Meghann labeled ping-pong balls with the FSB staff members' names.  When a ping-pong ball is drawn, that staff member's crew is dismissed from flags.]  I would consider using a dart board, but I don’t have one.  (Because I’m afraid I would wind up throwing the darts at the staff members when they stand in my doorway and ask me questions that 18+ year old human beings should be able to answer for themselves.)  Do any of you parents remember “lawn darts”?  They were gigantic metal darts that you threw into the air and tried to make them land inside a hula-hoop.  Over time, the game evolved so that the objective became how close you could stick the dart to your best friend.  Then I guess some kid got impaled and then the lawn darts were recalled.  What a shame.  I miss lawn darts.  (From hiring staff to lawn darts.  If there are any mental health professionals reading this they will likely be concerned about that progression.  But its just the way my mind works.)

The BSA Explorer is calling me.  Be careful out there.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Invest 91L has reached tropical depression status with a closed circulation and 35 mph winds.  The good news is the system is not forecasted to reach hurricane strength and it should travel between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Credit National Hurricane Center

That’s all for now.  Thanks for reading.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Good morning from the Florida Sea Base.  Yesterday was picture perfect for the divers and just a little too still for the sailors.  But the sailors had some EXCELLENT snorkeling opportunities.  Today should be more of the same with a very small chance of a shower.

Invest 91L is forecast to be a Tropical Depression very soon.  It should be somewhere in the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday or Thursday.  Since the Lesser Antilles cover over 550 nm that really doesn’t narrow it down much.  So we will continue to watch the system closely.  The arguments that I have seen so far are suggesting that it should stay south of us or stay northeast of us.  But again, any forecast models have to be taken with a grain of salt at this early date.  Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...
HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This graphic is from WeatherUnderground.  Bear in mind that this is very preliminary and will likely change.

Early projection for Invest 91L

I was out of the office most of yesterday.  Poor timing.  My office flooded AGAIN (from the air conditioner drainage system) ruining an irreplaceable poster from the Texas Sesquicentennial.  And one of the scuba arrivals had a paperwork issue that I will straighten out this morning.  Capt. Dennis Wyatt, Ellen Wyatt, Capt. Alex Bergstedt, Capt. Aaron Foster and April Oster sopped up the water in my office.  THANK YOU.  When I came in yesterday evening my office looked like a bomb had exploded in it.  I suspect it will take me a couple of hours to put it back in order.

Time to go.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Good morning.  I am “off” today so this may be brief but I wanted to bring everyone up to date on the tropical development – or at least what the “experts” seem to be saying at this point.  A new wave emerged from Africa yesterday.  There is speculation that this new wave will kill or devour 90L.

From Weather Underground

The above graphic was copied from Dr. Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog dated 30 July 2010.  In the same blog, Dr. Masters commented on the wave that is south of the Dominican Republic.

Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, south of the Dominican Republic, is moving west at 15 – 20 mph with no signs of development. The wave is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper level low centered north of Puerto Rico. This shear is expected to remain remain high through Saturday. By Sunday, when the wave will be approaching Nicaragua, the wave will be far enough away from the upper level low that shear should fall to the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots. Some development is possible on Sunday, but the wave will have only about a 1-day window to develop before its westerly motion brings it inland over Nicaragua on Monday. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 2pm Sunday.

So we’re not sweating the Caribbean system and 90L and the new African wave are too far out to be overly concerned about at this time.  Locally we are expecting another VERY warm day with light winds – great for diving but a little challenging for the sailors.

Since I’m posting this a couple of hours later than usual this morning I decided to check the comments part of the site and was pleased to find the following compliments of Capt. Dennis and Jon Dobson:

Just a reminder to all Staff: don’t stick your pinkie finger into a hermit crab’s home. The pincher claw will create a blood blister on the end of one’s finger. It seems to hurt a lot. Dunking the attched hermit crab into salt water will only made the hermit crab squeeze tighter thusly hurting more. Shaking the crab appears to make the crab more angry. Also–when screaming for help from Captain Dennis don’t scream “Captain Steve!! Captain Steve!! Hellp! Get this thing off me! Help!” Be aware of the rescuer’s name. Also, I, John Dobson, would like to personally and publicly thank Boat Mate Dan for leaping to my assistance with his Spyderco knife. I did believe he was going to cut my pinkie off, but he attacked the claw. And thanks to Program Office Manager Ellen for her sympathies. And thanks to all the Staff at the July 31st Staff Meeting for their kind comments and subdued laughter. Also thanks go to Captain Rich who reminded me “If you aren’t going to be smart…you’ve got to be tough.”

The actual quote is “If you’re going to be stupid you better be tough” which is attributed to Capt. Mike Lucivero.  One of Capt. Mike’s participants had a stack of bumper stickers printed with the quote and Capt. Mike’s name.  Anyway, it seems like some of the staff are learning life lessons.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape