Florida Sea Base News

All is well today at the Florida Sea Base.  Staff members are starting to pour in.  Staff training starts at 0730 Sunday.

There is mixed news for the Florida Sea Base regarding the oil disaster today.  My comments yesterday about the route of the Loop Current actually protecting the Gulf of Mexico side of our part of the Keys was reinforced.  There are reports of oil as close as 350 miles west of Key West today but NONE of that is a threat to our bay side operation.  [The Florida Sea Base is on the "bay side" or Gulf of Mexico side of the Keys.  We should remain safe for the foreseeable future.]  And even better news is that the Loop Current may (in the next few days) break from it’s usual path and actually form a clockwise rotating circle loop that would literally carry the oil back to Louisiana.  (Not what the folks in Louisiana or Alabama want to hear.)  This circular loop occurs every six to eleven months.  Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground thinks this may happen as early as tomorrow.  Even so, Dr. Masters still feels some oil will make it’s way past Key West on Wednesday.  If you are trying to keep up with this, I would suggest you check Dr. Masters’ post daily.  Today’s full post is at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1488.  Dr. Masters also mentions the first “invest” system, 90L, is sitting just northeast of the Bahamas and may bring some nasty weather to North Carolina by Tuesday.  The system will not be any threat to the Florida Sea Base.

After our Team Meeting yesterday, Keith Douglass, our Facilities Director, attended a meeting in Marathon that primarily focused on hurricane information for 2010 but also got into the oil disaster.  Capt. Pat DeQuattro, Commander of US Coast Guard Sector Key West, said (according to Capt. Douglass) that the Coast Guard will remain vigilant and prepared for a worse case scenario but all he is expecting to happen in the Keys from this oil disaster is the presence of tar balls.  Again, that supports the comments I made yesterday.

So everything continues to be good at the Florida Sea Base; hectic and insane, but good.  have a pleasant day.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Today is the third Thursday of the month and that is our monthly Team Meeting day at the Florida Sea Base.  Rob Kolb was absent.  He is in the Bahamas on official Florida Sea Base business.  As usual, a good deal of our 3 hour meeting was dedicated to reviewing the budget and what the BSA refers to as seasonalization.  That is a process of breaking the annual budget down to a monthly level.  So every month we review the budget, expenditures and income on a monthly basis and a year to date basis.  The accountants at headquarters get upset if you spend more in a month on one account even if you are under budget for the year in that account and under budget on the bottom line for the month and for the year to date.  I guess accountants are just unhappy all of the time unless all expense accounts are always under budget and all income accounts are always over budget.  I don’t imagine that happens very often; maybe as often as all of the planets in our solar system line up perfectly.

The remainder of the day was focused on preparing for staff training (which begins this Sunday) and our annual BSA camp inspection ( 09- 11 June).  Both of these events are paperwork intensive.  Capt. Rich and I are very fortunate to have some strong staff members in leadership positions.  Matt McClure will be the Sailing Commissioner, Dominic Alesandrini will be the Dockmaster, Dutch Van der Laan will be in charge of the small boat sailing program, Capt. Alex Bergstedt is the Scuba Commissioner, Capt. Carol Chapman is the Marine Superintendent (Dive Boat Goddess) and Ellen Stites-Wyatt, Ph.D. is the Office Manager.  Of this particular group, all have multiple years of past service with the Florida Sea Base except Dom.  This spring was Dom’s first season at the Florida Sea Base but he has proven himself worthy of his assignment and is doing an outstanding job.

Speaking of staff, Laura Kuras can’t work the whole summer for us but is managing to break away from college long enough to spend staff training and the first week of program with us.  Laura was Staff Member of the Year twice, graduated from the Florida Sea Base Divemaster Academy, and is one of the most confident, outgoing, polite, young ladies I have ever met.  She worked her way up to Scuba Instructor and I am very pleased to have her here for the first two weeks as a role model for the new staff members.

I received this comment today from Al Fabel,

“Thank you for the daily updates. Our 3 crews totalling 24 are still cautiously optimistic that our trek will be a go when we arrive at sea base June 12. Never in my dreams did I expect this as one of the organizers – I truly was thinking hurricanes maybe. This is a terrible situation.”

We discussed our position regarding the Deepwater Horizon blow-out during our Team Meeting today.  THIS IS IMPORTANT — This is NOT an official statement from the Florida Sea Base but here is what I think needs to be said.  The Florida Sea Base will not close unless ordered to do so by the government. I can foresee some limited possibility that the government could order a section of the Keys closed, but not all of both sides of the Keys.  So the real likelihood is that in the worse case scenario we MIGHT have to work around some closed areas.  We MIGHT have to catch and release fish instead of eating them.  But I think the chances of us being closed are very, very slim.  In my continued study of this event, I feel the path of the Loop Current may actually protect the Gulf of Mexico side of the middle and upper Keys (where the Florida Sea Base is located).  And I continue to be optimistic that we won’t see much that than tar balls IF the oil gets to the ocean side of the Keys.

I have no reason to mislead anyone about this.  This may sound cold, but I will get paid the same if 20,000 Scouts attend this summer or if ZERO Scouts attend.  I don’ get paid a commission, I don’t get a bonus.  So I am not trying to con anyone.  I want young men and young women to attend the Florida Sea Base because I believe that so doing will have a positive impact on their lives.

Could I be wrong about the oil?  Yes.  Am I am expert on oil disasters?  No.  Am I logical and analytical?  Yes.  The wind is blowing on-shore near the well site today – bad news for Louisiana but good news for us.  We are most likely going to get some oil.  But I remain truly optimistic that we will manage the situation.  We are looking forward to celebrating the Centennial of the BSA and the 30th anniversary of the Florida Sea Base this year.  I hope to see you here.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Sargon Smith and I attended a course in Visual Inspection of High Pressure Cylinders today.  The certification expires every three years,  This was my third time to take the class.  Steve Campbell of Quiescence Diving Services did a great job.  I left the Florida Sea Base before breakfast and didn’t get back until after dinner so I don’t have a clue as to what went on here today.  Capt. Rich and Capt. Carol will be back at work tomorrow.  We have our monthly Team Meeting tomorrow morning and then Capt. Rich will probably have to go to Key West to meet with the US Navy in reference to our Memorandum of Understanding regarding our Sea Exploring vessels docking at the Navy Base.  Rob Kolb is in the Bahamas on business at the Florida Sea Base location in Marsh Harbor, Abaco Island, Bahamas.  Capt. Alex Bergstedt, Scuba Commissioner, returned to work after visiting his family in Indiana for a couple of weeks.

There is an update on the oil disaster posted at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37231675/ns/gulf_oil_spill/.  I’m sure there are several others.  Way down in the article there are a few sentences saying that the tar balls that washed ashore in Key West a few days ago are NOT from Deepwater Horizon.  That about the only good news.  Here are some excepts copied from the MSNBC article.

The latest satellite and overflight data shows a “small portion” of the BP oil slick has reached the Loop Current “in the form of light to very light sheens,” the federal government said Wednesday.

But the update also cautioned that “in the time it would take for oil to travel to the vicinity of the Florida Straits, any oil would be highly weathered and both the natural process of evaporation and the application of chemical dispersants would reduce the oil volume significantly.”

The statement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration added that the oil might not be carried to the Florida Straights at all if it gets caught in a clockwise eddy in the middle of the Gulf.

“Oil entrained in the Loop Current would require persistent onshore winds or an eddy on the edge of the Loop Current for it to reach the Florida shoreline,” NOAA said. “If this were to occur, the weathered and diluted oil would likely appear in isolated locations in the form of tar balls.”

Also Wednesday, the Coast Guard said that tar balls that floated ashore in the Florida Keys are not linked to the oil spill, but that did little to soothe fears a blown-out well gushing a mile underwater could spread damage along the coast from Louisiana to Florida.

“The results of those tests conclusively show that the tar balls collected from Florida Keys beaches do not match the type of oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The source of the tar balls remains unknown at this time,” the Coast Guard said in a statement.

But the Coast Guard remained on the alert for oil contamination.

“The conclusion that these tar balls are not from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident in no way diminishes the need to continue to aggressively identify and clean up tar ball-contaminated areas in the Florida Keys,” said Coast Guard Capt. Pat DeQuattro, commanding officer of Sector Key West.

Despite the laboratory result, Florida Keys authorities are still preparing for possible impact from the Gulf spill as many forecasters see some oil from it being sucked by a powerful ocean flow, the Loop Current, around the Florida Keys and perhaps even up to Miami beaches.

The U.S. and Cuba were holding talks on how to respond to the spill, a U.S. StateDepartment official said, underscoring worries about the oil reaching a strong current that could carry it to the Florida Keys and the pristine white beaches of Cuba’s northern coast.

BP said it is now collecting 3,000 barrels of oil a day from the leaking well.

BP said it hopes to beging shooting a mixture known as drilling mud into the well early next week. Engineers hope to start the procedure known as a “top-kill” by Sunday. It could take several weeks to complete, but if it works it should stop the oil.

The first sea turtle has been treated for oiling. The baby Kemp’s ridley turtle was found Tuesday night.

If you believe that BP is actually capturing 3,000 barrels of oil per day, then that means they are getting 33% to 50% of the oil being spewed from the crippled well depending on whose numbers you want to believe about the amount of oil being discharged into the water.  Much of what I read in this article is good news to me – under the circumstances.  It really could be MUCH worse.

Hope for the best but prepare for the worse.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Here is the latest word from Paul Beal, General Manager, Florida Sea Base:

Information Regarding the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

As this crisis continues to unfold the Florida National High Adventure Sea Base is closely monitoring the situation.  The most recent reports show that there is a possibility that some of the oil has reached the Gulf Loop Current, which would direct contaminants towards the Florida Keys.  The majority of the oil plume is still to the north and west of the spill site, however some oil is drifting towards the south. The news on May 18 noted that tarballs had washed up on shore at Key West, however tests to see if these were from the Deepwater Horizon were inconclusive.

We are in constant contact with local civil authorities concerning the safety of persons being in and on the water.  At this time there is no danger and water activities have not been curtailed in the Keys. Please know that the Florida Sea Base will close programs ONLY when directed to by local authorities or when we feel that the conditions presented are unsafe to our participants and staff.  Any cancellation on our part will result in full or prorated refund of fees under the same guidelines as severe weather cancellation (please see page 28 of the Participant Guide).  Should this contingency arise, we will notify crews as soon as possible.

Thank you for your understanding as we diligently watch this situation.  As evidenced by industry and governmental response this is a new and unknown issue.  We will keep you posted as we know more.

Paul M. Beal
General Manager

This statement is also posted at the official Florida Sea Base website.

Joe Schreiner sent this link to a video clip from the Today Show:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36740125/vp/34328514#37207112

Tar balls have definitely come ashore in Key West.  But Key West is 75 miles from the Florida Sea Base and much closer to the Loop Current than we are.  The tar balls have been sent to a lab to determine if they are from Deepwater Horizon.  We are planning for business as usual at the Florida Sea Base and I will let you know IMMEDIATELY if there is any change to our scheduled programming.

Capt. Steve

It’s 0420 at the Florida Sea Base.  It’s partly cloudy, 79 degrees with calm winds.I was checking the weather and saw that Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground had posted a blog yesterday afternoon that I missed.  Please read his report about the Deepwater Horizon oil and the Loop Current at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1483.

This is sort of like sitting and waiting for a hurricane.  The scientist and forecasters are not sure what’s going to happen so we don’t know what’s going to happen.  Two days ago they were saying the oil might miss us.  Yesterday’s forecast said it might miss the bay side but be an issue on the ocean side.  It’s reminiscent of the “cone of death” during hurricanes.  The forecast says you are in the clear so you’re not too worried, then they move the cone and you might get hit so you start worrying and making a few preparations – just in case, then they move it again and you’re at ground zero so you fly into full crazy batten down the hatches mode, then they move it again and you’re out of danger and then the hurricane does whatever it wants and doesn’t seem to pay attention to the forecasters at all.  Same here.  We are simply going to have to wait and see what happens.  But since we have never experienced this sort of disaster we really don’t know how to prepare.  My personal motto is “prepare for the worse and hope for the best”.

Maybe oil will affect us and maybe not.  The “experts” are comfortable in saying the oil has connected with the Loop Current – at least temporarily – and some oil is headed our way.  Know one knows when it will get here (3 to 20 days depending on who you ask), what form it will be in (oil slick or tar balls or both), how weathered (or detoxified) it will be, if it will stay off-shore in the current or come on-shore,  how long this will last or what the long terms effects will be.

When I know something you will know something.  If you have access to some verifiable information that you want to share with me on this topic please click the comment button and send me the info to share with the other readers or email the information to me at steve.willis@scouting.org.

If I hurry I might be able to get another hour or sleep before the alarm goes off.  Don’t panic.  Stay tuned and stay informed.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

The news of the day is that the oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon blowout may be sucked into the Loop Current.  We knew this was a matter of time, but hoped it would be later rather than sooner.  NBC news quoted sources who are estimating the first signs of oil may approach the Florida Keys in five to ten days.  No one knows  for sure what effects this will have on the Florida Sea Base or the world for that matter.  Please stay tuned.  I will post any program related information as soon as I know it.  For now, everything is proceeding as usual.  Summer staff training starts this Sunday and we are planning on a full program season.

I made a mistake on a post a few days ago and I always like to correct my mistakes as quickly as possible.  Nate Johnson is still here with the very few other staff members.  Nate is working as a ranger (maintenance) until the program season starts.  I think I may have left him off the remaining staff list because he drove Hannah to the airport and I didn’t see him all day.  Sargon will be going out with the shark tagging crew today with Capt. Tom.  Dom and Christi are off today.  Dutch and Jan Van der Laan are working on the snack bar.

Locally the forecast continues to call for a chance of rain, but so far we have remained dry.  Other than the grass needing some rain, I don’t mind a shower every now and then (and that’s what we usually get).  Sometimes we get the monsoon type rains that last for a few days.  Those are tough on program.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

It’s starting out as a lazy day at the Florida Sea Base – for me personally anyway.  I slept in until 0700 ( that’s pretty late considering I was up at 0545 yesterday and 0300 the day before).  So I fixed a pot of decaf coffee and decided to check out the weather.  We have some rain on the radar but no rain directly affecting us.  Dr. Jeff Master’s of WeatherUnderground has an article on the upcoming hurricane season that you should take time to read.  I am going to copy two of the paragraphs for you, but here’s the link to the full article: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1480

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest April on record, according to an analysis ofhistorical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. The area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W – 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month–by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C.

What does this imply for the coming hurricane season?
The high April SST anomaly does not bode well for the coming hurricane season. The three past seasons with record warm April SST anomalies all had abnormally high numbers of intense hurricanes. Past hurricane seasons that had high March SST anomalies include 1969 (0.90°C anomaly), 2005 (1.19°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.97°C anomaly). These three years had 5, 7, and 5 intense hurricanes, respectively. Just two intense hurricanes occur in an average year. The total averaged activity for the three seasons was 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes (an average hurricane season has 10, 6, and 2.) Both 1958 and 2005 saw neutral El Niño conditions, while 1969 had a weak El Niño.

The SSTs are already as warm as we normally see in July between Africa and the Caribbean, and we have a very July-like tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend. However, wind shear is still seasonably high, and the tropical waves coming off of Africa are still too far south to have much of a chance of developing. The GFS model is indicating that shear will start to drop over the Caribbean the last week of May, so we may have to be on the watch for tropical storms forming in the Caribbean then.

For those of you interested in a more detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW andWeather456. I’ll be back with a new post on Monday.

I’m not sure that the last two links in the paragraph above will work from this site, but if you go to Dr. Master’s blog they will definitely work from there.  StormW’s comments are a bit on the technical side.  Weather456′s blog starts out a little tough but has some great information if you keep reading down.  Here is a small excerpt:

Tropical Weather Outlook: May 15-31

Introduction

The 17-day period ending May 31 2010 is expected to have a low-moderate chance of tropical development based on climatology, activity over the recent years, vertical wind shear, the MJO and sea surface temperatures.

Climatology

May is not a month we normally see tropical activity but over the past couple of years, systems were found forming in May on average every other year, about the same as the long-term average for June. Systems forming in May normally form in the Western Caribbean or offshore the Eastern United States where low shear is found between the subtropical and polar jet streams. May systems are also found to be baroclinically induced meaning there is some association with dying fronts, wind shear and upper level systems. Storms forming in May are normally a threat to the Western Caribbean and to a lesser extend the Gulf coast.

I have noted before that there are three issues causing concern about the 2010 hurricane season; (1) above average Sea Surface Temperatures, (2) weakening El Niño effects and (3) reduced solar activity.  I think El Niño has been hanging in a little better than forecasted but I’m not sure it will spare us from the storms like it did in 2009.  You may recall that there were SEVERAL major storms that recurved back into the Atlantic Ocean last year thereby sparing the US east coast and Florida.

This is all in God’s hands and there is nothing we can do to prevent whatever is going to happen.  But we can stay informed and have plans and materials ready to deal with the weather.  I am no meteorologist (but Capt. Rich is studying to become one).  If you are a group leader coming to the Florida Sea Base this year, I want to again encourage you to consider trip interruption insurance – just in case.  (I posted  a blog a week or two ago with some clues as to where you can purchase trip insurance).

I am going to continue my lazy morning by fixing a nice breakfast to go with my coffee.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

Today was the first installment of the 2010 Captains Training at the Florida Sea Base.  This training is intended for the captains and mates operating in our Coral Reef Sailing, Eco Adventure, Scuba Liveaboard and Sea Exploring programs.  Capt. Rich was in charge of today’s training.  Paul Beal, General Manager, and Rob Kolb, Director of Program, stopped by to welcome everyone.  Chrystene Matthews, Director of Conferences and Food Services, explained changes in the provisions and commissary procedures for this year.  Lt. Liz Riesz (FSB Staff Member of the Year – 1996) with the Florida Wildlife Commission and Lt. Phil Goodman (Eagle Scout) with the US Coast Guard Auxiliary were guest speakers.  I explained the new records keeping policies for the paperwork related to the USCG required random drug testing program (that was exciting).

Lt. Phil Goodman, USCG Auxiliary

Lt. Liz Riesz, Florida Wildlife Commission

The Florida Sea Base contracts  over 40 personnel who fall into the captain/mate categories listed above.  Not all could attend today so there will be at least one more training session (27 May I believe).  Most of our captains are returners so today was mostly a review for them – with some new information.  Capt. Rich provided everyone with some outstanding handout materials he had assembled.  For the new captains (Capt. Kim Hess, S/V Rainbow Connection, and Capt. Bob Morse, S/V New Day) Capt. Rich explained Florida Sea Base and Boy Scout of America policies that are pertinent to their jobs.    Today also served as an opportunity for the new captains to meet and talk with the old salts about what they have gotten themselves in to.  Some of our captains have been working at the Florida Sea Base for 18 years.

Almost all of our seasonal staff members have gone home now.  Some will be back.  Sargon Smith, Dominic Alesandrini, Christi Clemenson, and Angela Atkins are still here.  Teri Wells is still working on her PADI Instructor Development Course.

Capt. Tom Faralli and Sargon Smith took some of the shark researchers from the University of Miami out today.  They tagged several nurse sharks and one black nosed shark.  Angela Atkins, Galley Manager, and Christi Clemenson took care of the galley duties today and Dominic Alesandrini taught a First Aid / CPR refresher course for several of our captains following the Captains Training session.  Thank you, everyone.  The shark group goes out tomorrow but I am hoping for an opportunity to be lazy.  Capt. Rich and Capt. Carol are heading out of town for a few days.  Staff Training starts in one week from tomorrow.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

I have made so many posts regarding the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and its potential effects on the Florida Sea Base that I thought I should start numbering them for organizational purposes.  By my account, this is my 6th blog on the topic with a few other posts having small references to the spill.

Today’s news is somewhat optimistic.  I commented last night that time is not on our side and the sooner they can get this situation under control the better it will be for everyone – including the Florida Sea Base.  The previous forecasts indicated that IF the oil gets to the Loop Current it would be in the Keys in 5 days.  The new report forecasts a delivery time of 10 to 14 days.  So IF the oil heads our way we will have more time to prepare and to inform our participants of what’s happening.  The other part of the report that I feel is good news is that IF the oil gets to the Loop Current and heads our way, it may not have any near-shore impact; that is to say the oil may stay in the current (several miles off-shore) and not impact our operations at all.  And IF the oil does have an on-shore or near-shore impact, there is a good chance that it will be in the form of tar balls which are much easier to deal with than a big slick of raw oil.

I was super stressed out about this issue last night and slept very poorly.  As a matter of fact, I got up at 0300 simply because I couldn’t sleep.  This news came at a good time and hopefully I will rest a little easier tonight.  Keep in mind that the spill is still over 500 miles away and – so far – is NOT migrating towards the Loop Current.  Please click on the link to read the full report that I am referring to.  OilQ&AAdv9

While this site contains more frequent updates on the oil spill and I try to share any info posted on the official Florida Sea Base website, please check their site frequently for any updated information that I may have missed.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

I managed to get caught up on my Florida Sea Base emails this morning.  I still have more to do than I know what to do with, but at least the emails are caught up – for now.  Capt. Rich is putting in another full day of getting materials prepared for this Saturday’s Captains’ Training.  I am working on the Sea Base summer program staff overview training and on the scuba staff specific training.

I wrote about the team who recovered the sunken boat yesterday and did my best to list the Florida Sea Base staff members who assisted.  Not surprisingly, I left two people out, Christi Clemenson and Dominic Alesandrini.  Thanks again to everyone who helped.  The boat is in the “back 40″ drying out.  We are going to strip some of the stainless steel hardware off of her and then dispose of the carcass.

Some of he captains on the Florida Sea Base dock are making preparations for summer.  Capt. Dave Muenzel is working hard on his boat, S/V New Horizon, to get her pretty for the upcoming summer season.  He got at least half of the deck painted today.  Capt. Scott is having the finishing touches made to his cockpit enclosure on S/V Chanticleer (you might be able to ride out a hurricane in that thing).

The wind is honking out of the east.  We have a chance of rain (finally) on Monday.  The Deepwater Horizon spill is still staying away from the Loop Current but time is NOT on our side.  Every day that the companies working to contain that mess don’t get the oil flow shut down increases the chances that the oil will get to the Loop Current.  If that happens, the experts say it will take 5 days for oil (no one knows how much) to have some impact on the Florida Keys.  There is a cold front moving through Texas today that could potentially bring some off-shore winds to the spill area.  Hopefully not.  I hope the whole world is praying from a quick resolution for this disaster.

Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape