FLORIDA SEA BASE
The Florida Sea Base is still experiencing significant winds from Hurricane Sandy. The conditions may be bouncy and uncomfortable in the harbor, but I am certainly glad we are not in the New Jersey/New York area. The local winds have clocked a little more towards the north and are from the NNW at 20-25 knots. A few more degrees to the north will make life better at the base. There is a tremendous amount of hype on the TV and internet about Hurricane Sandy. If only half of it is true, they are going to have a MISERABLE week – or longer.
Captain Rich Beliveau returned to the base safely and triumphantly from the Sea Scout meeting in Dallas.
PENDING LANDFALL
This was copied from the National Data Buoy Center website around 14:50 (2:50 pm) Sunday. This specific buoy is at the New York Harbor Entrance (15 nm SE of Breezy Point, NY).
Station 44065
NDBC
Location: 40.369N 73.703W
Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (130°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling
Air Temperature: 59.4 F
Dew Point: 54.7 F
Water Temperature: 61.3 F
This buoy is was near the right edge of the cone for Sandy at that time. I was just investigating new resources. The center of the cone was laying nearly dead atop the Atlantic City buoy, but unfortunately, that buoy does not provide wind data.
At 2050 (8:50 pm EDT) the buoy was reporting 35 knot winds and 13.8′ waves; an increase of 4 knots of wind speed and 4 feet in wave height.
At 06:50 this morning the wind speed was 40.8 and the waves were still 13.8′.
There is no limit to things I do not know. But if I lived in New York City and read this part of Dr. Jeff Masters’ blog, I would have made my way to the Greyhound Bus terminal and gotten out of town.
Sandy’s storm surge a huge threat
Last night’s 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 – 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy’s storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina’s, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13′ to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 – 12″ shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy’s storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene’s. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

Click to enlarge.
Six feet of surge would seriously compromise the Galley, Ships Store, laundry, and Annex (staff housing) at the Florida Sea Base. Eleven feet of surge would be close to the ceilings in those structures.
The above post is too large for me to copy and paste the whole thing. PLEASE click on the link and read her post. Wow!!!
INTERNATIONAL
Here are some snippets from the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion:
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS
PATTERN IS TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS HURRICANE SANDY...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY AT THE MOMENT SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N77W...BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 19N96W IN COASTAL MEXICO...TO
15N87W IN HONDURAS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENGULFS HURRICANE SANDY PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N70W TO 16N76W TO 10N80W AT THE PANAMA COAST.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH A 991 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N41W AT THE START
OF THE FORECAST...MOVING TO 991 MB NEAR 36N37W AT 24 HOURS...AND MOVING TO 993 MB NEAR
34.5N 32.5W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET
IN AREAS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
If you are not prepared to survive on your own, without electricity and possibly without running water, GET OUT. One of the advantages we have living on boats is we carry a fresh water supply, most use propane for cooking, refrigeration is battery powered, and many of us have onboard generators or other means to generate electricity (wind generators and/or solar panels).
Our thoughts are prayers are with those in the path of this historic storm. I keep thinking, “This is ONLY a Category 1 hurricane.” Try to imagine if this was a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm.
Capt. Steve Willis
Professional Scuba Bum™
PADI Course Director #39713