Probably. Dr. Masters thinks there is a 90% chance that it will not reorganize. Here’s what he said on his blog this morning:
A slight chance 92L could develop next week
Today and Saturday, 92L will encounter 20 – 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. These factors should significantly disrupt the disturbance. If there’s anything left of 92L by Sunday, when it will be over eastern Cuba, the storm may have the opportunity to develop. At that time, 92L will have passed through the core of the subtropical jet stream and entered a region of lower shear (15 – 20 knots.) For the latest round of 00Z and 06Z model runs, the HWRF is the only reliable model calling for 92L to develop; that model predicts that 92L will organize into a tropical depression on Wednesday over the Lower Florida Keys, and head into the Gulf of Mexico. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to do this are great, and I give 92L just a 10% chance of eventually developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday next week.
The extended forecast calls for an increased chance of rain at the Florida Sea Base next week as what is left of 92L passes over Cuba. Even if the system manages to reorganize into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, if won’t have much effect on our programs. It may add a more “high adventure” element to the week in the form of rain and stronger winds, but we deal with frequently – especially during the spring. If you are coming to the Florida Sea Base or Brinton Environmental Center in the next week I suggest (strictly as a precaution) that you consider bringing an inexpensive, light weight rain jacket. It won’t really keep you dry, but it helps keep you a little warmer. Even when the air temperature is 90+, the rain can tend to chill you.
I travel and I despise the airlines charging for checked luggage. So I try to get by with what I can carry on, like most of you. And I understand the limitations on liquids that can be carried aboard. Those limitations preclude carrying large bottles of sunscreen in your carry-on. So I am guessing that fewer crews are bringing an adequate supply of sunscreen with them. Sunscreen is VITAL for our participants. The daily UV index has been running at 15. The absolute maximum UV index is 16. We are seeing TOO MUCH sunburn in the kids and adults at the Florida Sea Base this summer. I see two easy fixes. You can stop at any pharmacy, convenience store or grocery store between the airport and here or you can buy sunscreen in our Ships Store when you arrive. The participants, youth and adult, need to wear sunscreen; and they need to reapply it often. it doesn’t matter if the bottle says it is waterproof or sweatproof. I do not know what the manufacturers think those words mean, but I have lived in the Florida Keys for 10 years and I can personally attest to the fact that the sunscreens wash off while you’re snorkeling and swimming in the water, they wipe off if you towel dry after being in the water and they melt off as you sit in 115º “feels like” temperatures sweating bullets. So PLEASE procure SPF 50 sunscreen (NOT the spray type) put it on as soon as you get here and reapply it FREQUENTLY. When you finish your swim review – reapply. When you finish your snorkel lesson – reapply. When you finish your volleyball game – reapply. Before you go and when you return from small boat sailing – reapply. Before leaving on the dive boat – slather up. After every dive – slather on some more. UV ratings of 15 should not be taken lightly. Also consider sunscreen for your lips. Puffy, tender, swollen, sunburned lips are not fun. Don’t forget the tops of your feet. Most of our participants spend a lot of time barefooted here. Most of you wear shoes on a daily basis and you feet have not built up any resistance to the sun. Blistered feet mean you can’t wear fins. Scuba diving is out if you can’t wear fins. Snorkeling is possible, but just not as much fun or as efficient without fins.
Hand-in-hand with sunburn is the issue of dehydration. If you are sunburned you are dehydrated. DEHYDRATION CAN BE LIFE THREATENING. Any participant (or outdoor working staff member) who doesn’t drink AT LEAST a gallon of water a day here is dehydrated. Serious dehydration requires a trip to the ER. At the ER they give you an IV to hydrate you. At that point, you are likely to be instructed to stay out of the water for several days to a week. So basically your trip is over.
WE TAKE SOMEONE TO THE HOSPITAL ABOUT ONCE A WEEK FOR SEVERE SUNBURN AND DEHYDRATION. Please don’t let it be you or a member of your crew. These conditions are so easy to prevent that I have no patience for adult leaders who allow the youth in their crews to suffer from either of these conditions. Shade is not the answer. UV rays bounce off the water and sitting under the bimini in the cockpit of a boat provides almost no protection from the UV rays. Shade does not mean there are no UV rays.
It’s almost 09:30. The dive boats will be leaving any moment. The sailboats that were at dock for a mid-week break yesterday are now gone. The sailboats for today’s mid-week break have arrived and secured at the dock. I got to sleep in a while this morning. I’m going to fix breakfast, check-in with the office to make sure everyone survived this morning’s staff meeting and then I am going to get busy with chores.
Aboard S/V Escape