I literally have only a few moments this morning. Here is the latest on Tropical Storm Alex. It is no threat to the Florida Sea Base but if you live anywhere along the Texas coast you need to read this update from Weather Underground.
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it’s in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.
Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that’s currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.
What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it’s hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.
I Have to run but I’ll post more later today.
Aboard S/V Escape