As noted yesterday, T/S Bonnie made landfall in Miami and had very minimal effect on the Florida Sea Base.  It is VERY difficult to not be frustrated with the “science” of weather forecasting.  For three days the forecast said the center of Bonnie would come very close to the Florida Sea Base.  Even as Bonnie was coming ashore in Miami (90 miles away) the data available on the internet showed it to be on track to hit the base.  Since it came ashore about 10:30, it seems reasonable that the 05:00 or 08:00 update could have updated the location and track.

This is not unusual, but that makes it no less frustrating.  Most people in Miami were caught unperpared and those of us in the Keys spent untold man-hours in preparation and – in our case – the kids missed a day of normal program.  About 30 minutes after Bonnie made landfall the “forecasters” corrected the path.

So what’s the good news?  The staff at the Florida Sea Base were being lulled into a false sense of security by a lack of tropical weather.  Now they understand that my “be prepared” speeches are real.  The facilities are a little better prepared for future severe weather.  The newer captains got a taste of how crazy it will be when the real deal happens.  I suspect that there will be some additional purchases of line, chain, hardware, fenders and other storm necessities in the coming week.  It even gave me the motivitation to clear my decks and revisit my level of preparation.  (I really want to add some mid-ship cleats.  Maybe I can make time for that next week.)  In the end, the management, staff, captains and participants all handled the situation exceptionally well.

The weather is fairly cooperative at the Florida Sea Base this weekend.  In a perfect world the wind would lay down to 10 to 15 knots and clock around to the north or northeast.  It’s GREAT to have so little to complain about.

Capt. Steve
Posted from Coconut Grove

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