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20Aug

Invest 95L

in Weather0 comments

It was a glorius day at the Florida Sea Base.  The last Coral Reef Sailing crew and the next to last Scuba Liveaboard crew returned to the Florida Sea base for their luau.  We have one Scuba Liveaboard crew still on the water.  All other programs have ended for the summer 2010 summer program season.  We will almost certainly complete the summer program season without a hurricane!!!

Speaking of hurricanes, the system off the west coast of Africa is becoming better organized and has been officially designated Invest 95L.  The following is from Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:35 AM EST on August 20, 2010
A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build. The wave is in a moist environment over SSTs that are at near record warmth (28°C). The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear over the system. As 95L moves away from Africa, wind shear will decrease, and system will probably develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 95L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 – 10 mph to 15 – 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The long term steering current forecast from the GFS model indicates an above-average chance of recurvature of storms approaching the U.S. East Coast through the end of August, followed by a near-average chance of recurvature for the first week of September.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms, and the wave does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore tonight or Saturday.

Also from Weather Underground:
Staff are departing so quickly now that I can’t keep track.  It’s been a great summer and I hate to see everyone go.  It get’s very lonely here during the “off season”.  Much of the Florida Keys is closed during September.  Many of the family owned hotels and restaurants close for the month.  The likelyhood of SEVERE weather systems peaks in September.  I am hoping the weather will allow me to return home to Texas for the last two weeks of September.
Sales of the used scuba equipment is off to a good start.  Capt. Alex, Ellen and Christy sold over $2,000 worth today.  Go team!
Capt. Alan Robinson of S/V Sinbad is working on my air conditioner.  He will have to bypass the heat/cool valve so I will loose the heater function.  Obviously you don’t need a heater very often in the Keys.  But it is a very nice thing to have during December and January.  I will be searching the internet for a space heater for the aft cabin.
I’m off tomorrow.  I hope you have a great day.
Capt. Steve
Aboard S/V Escape

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This entry was posted on Friday, August 20th, 2010 at 19:17 and is filed under Weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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