One model has the system coming right to us.

Invest 90L is not an immediate threat to the Florida Sea Base and may be no threat at all, but we are keeping a close eye on it.  Here is Dr. Jeff Masters comment on the system:

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I’ve looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave’s track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Our local weather remains “seasonal”.  The sailing staff handled the onslaught of Coral Reef Sailing crews with great poise and professionalism yesterday.

I got to take my day off.  I slept in until 0545, worked on the engine cooling system on Escape until it got too hot to stay.  Then I went to Key Largo to look at Kawasaki Mules and trailers to haul tanks with.  The drive back was s-l-o-w.  The masses are arriving for the two day lobster mini season.

Lobster mini season is officially a two day event for snorkelers and scuba divers that precedes the opening of the commercial lobster season.  It is the single biggest grossing event of the year for Monroe County.  All hotels have a five day minimum.  There will be THOUSANDS of boaters and divers searching for “bugs”.  Two or three people usually die each year in the pursuit of lobster meat.  People who don’t own a boat will be renting one.  The locals call these people SPORES, Stupid People On Rental Equipment.  Out of ignorance, some of these people will anchor and snorkel in navigable channels, literally run over each other, break and kill coral, kill undersized lobsters and egg bearing females, exceed the bag limit, and then go home.  But the locals will make $$$$$ so it’s all okay.

Capt. Steve Willis
Aboard S/V Escape

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