Project Aware
Weather Underground
Captain Rich is in northern North Carolina walking the docks and looking for Sea Exploring and maybe Scuba Liveaboard size boats (about 60′ and up) for potential charter with the Florida Sea Base. I am on my way to Southeast Texas to visit my folks one more time as I migrate back towards Florida.
Hurricane Rina is constantly on our minds. This is a little dated (Tuesday) but here are comments from two hurricane experts.
Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground
This afternoon’s (Tuesday’s) computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.
Dr. Rick Nabb, The Weather Channel (the emphasis is mine)
Most models forecast Rina to significantly weaken while moving eastward toward Cuba or southern Florida later this week or this weekend, while some forecast it to dissipate over Yucatan; only one model currently forecasts a hurricane to reach southern Florida, and this scenario appears unlikely due to increasing wind shear later this week.
The 0650 EDT “Tropical Update” on the Weather Channel was somewhat good news. They are still forecasting a potential turn towards Florida with the system diminishing to tropical storm strength. We will remain optimistic but poised to return to the Florida Sea Base if the conditions warrant.
Click to enlarge.
Locally (in Texas, that is) we are forecasted for RAIN accompanied by cooler temperatures on Thursday. As everyone knows, all of Texas needs rain.
Capt. Steve Willis
Headed east with a heavy heart