TROPICAL WEATHER

There is some potentially good tropical weather news for Florida Sea Base crews arriving in the short term.  I’ve been watching for a potential storm system to fire up in the western Caribbean and that still looks likely.  (That is NOT the good news.)  The potential good news part is the experts think the system will stay in the Mexico/Central America region and not have a major impact on the Florida Keys.

Tropical Update
Stu Ostro, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jun 27,  2013 5:28 pm ET
GULF/CARIBBEANThe weeks-long storyline of the end of June into early July being a time conducive to moist, rising air and possibly development of a tropical system in the Gulf or western Caribbean is about to reach its final chapter, one way or the other, as the end of June is now upon us.The last time there was one of these weeks-in-advance signals, it begat Tropical Storm Andrea. In the days leading up to that, though, there were strong indications on the day-to-day model runs of an organized surface low pressure system forming, the only question being whether it’d be strung out and not quite gain the structure and strength necessary for being a tropical storm.

This time, whereas some 7-14 day model runs had been showing a storm forming in the Caribbean/Gulf (and then hitting the east-central U.S. Gulf Coast), they subsequently have backed off as the time approaches. The question is whether something will develop nonetheless.

What the latest runs are depicting is a little Barry-ish, i.e. a disturbance spinning up near Panama tomorrow, then moving across Central America and the Yucatan to the extreme southwest Gulf by early-mid next week, but with even more land inhibition than Barry had … and not getting pulled north to the U.S. by that trough mentioned in previous updates (southward dip in the jet stream), and, if the system did make a move north, maybe having to fight hostile upper-level wind shear from that same trough …

… But, regardless, the trough is squeezing out tropical moisture and producing quite a bit of rainfall between now and the middle of next week in the northeast Gulf and adjacent areas including Florida near where Andrea made landfall.

Invest 96E is moving north and then west, posing no threat to the United States.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM ON
SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

STAFF

Adam Vagner joined the Ships Store staff on Wednesday.

Replacement Scuba Mate Nathan Bisbee reported for duty yesterday afternoon.  Nate’s primary duties include filling scuba tanks for our divers, maintaining our compressors, and occasionally making minor repairs to our dive gear.  Nate will be teaming up with Scuba Mate Adam Carlsen.

Looking ahead, we expect Captain Fred Newhart to arrive something this weekend.  Captain Fred’s primary duties will be the safe operation and maintenance of one of our Newton 46′ Dive Specials.  Next week Divemaster Rafael Delgado will join us for the remainder of summer.  Two of our Divemaster Academy cadre, PADI Master Scuba Diver Trainer Richard Goldman and PADI Open Water Scuba Instructor Kari Dahlquist will join our tribe to fill slots left by some of the staff who have to depart early.

Former Florida Sea Base Dive Boat Captain Scott Costa, now Officer Costa, has returned from New Jersey to rejoined the staff for a long weekend and will drive BSA Adventure today.

Sailing Director Captain Luke Knuttel and Sailing Commissioner Phillip Ferrier are also looking to hire replacement staff.

Friday Captain Ed Miller of BSA Explorer fame, had an onboard incident while preparing the vessel for a day of scuba diving on the reef.  He injured his left leg and the doctor told him to stay off his feet for two days.  That gave me the opportunity to drive BSA Explorer all day Friday and again today plus a night dive tonight.  Friday went without incident.  The Scuba Adventure participants made their first dive at a patch reef named Pillars of Atlantis.  The seas were calm and visibility was 50′ or more.  The dive was a great success.  For the second dive we moved less than a mile to Long Key Ledge.  Divers saw a large remora, two large stingrays and an eagle ray.  next we relocated to Tennessee Reef for lunch snorkeling at the lighthouse and fender rodeo.

SUNDAY’S POST

Since I will be on the reef all day today and for tonight’s  night dive I will probably not post on Sunday.  If I do post, it may be later in the the day than usual.

Capt. Steve Willis
Professional Scuba Bum™
Aboard S/V Escape

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