SCUBA

Florida Sea Base Marine Superintendent, Captain Christy Clemenson, emailed the following yesterday morning:

Unbelievable conditions! At pillars reef. Best day of diving this summer. Flat seas, no current or surge, 80+ viz. GORGEOUS!

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Click to enlarge.

Captain Holley Whitley from the Florida Sea Base Scuba Liveaboard Schooner Conch Pearl sent this:

Hi Steve
Here’s evidence of our obsession!¬† The participants really enjoyed themselves (as did the crew ūüėČ .¬†¬† Hope it’s a safe mini season for all the boats.

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Click to enlarge.

Just to be clear, Scuba Liveaboard participants do not hunt/take lobsters while using scuba gear.  Scuba Adventure and Scuba Certification crews do not hunt/take lobsters as part of their Florida Sea Base program.

SAILING

S/V Flamingo is owned by Captain Tim Mahoney and Admiral Susan Mahoney.  Captain Tim operates the boat in the Coral Reef Sailing program and Susan is our Office Manager.  Captain Luke took this picture a few days ago of S/V Flamingo approaching the Florida Sea Base T-dock.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

 WEATHER

Tropical Storm Dorian, previously known as Tropical Depression 4, and before that Invest 98L, and before that as a tropical wave rolling of the coast of Africa, is now on the chart and in the news.

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Click to enlarge.

Most of the experts still seem to feel that the dry air, cool ocean temperatures and wind shear will prohibit the system from threatening the United States.  Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground posted yesterday:

Forecast for Dorian
The¬†SHIPS model¬†predicts that wind shear will stay in the low range through Thursday, then rise to the moderate range Friday through Monday. Ocean temperatures will fall to 25 – 26¬įC Wednesday night through Thursday night, which may induce some weakening of Dorian. Thereafter, ocean temperatures will rise again, but wind shear will rise. This increase in wind shear will be capable of causing weakening, since there will still be a large area of dry air to Dorian’s west that the shear may be able to bring into Dorian’s core. Given its small size, Dorian is capable of relatively large changes in intensity in a short amount of time, and it would not surprise me if the storm dissipated by the end of the week–or became a Category 1 hurricane. However, the official NHC forecast of a tropical storm passing just north of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday is the most likely outcome; the 11 am¬†wind probability forecast from NHC¬†gave Dorian a 6% chance of being a hurricane at that time. Dorian should maintain a west-northwest track through the week, and spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday. The usually reliable European model (ECMWF) has Dorian passing several hundred miles to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, while the other models show Dorian passing closer, within 100 miles. It currently appears that Dorian will be a potential threat to the Bahama Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast next week. There will be a trough of low pressure capable of recurving Dorian out to sea before the storm reaches the Bahamas and U.S., but this trough is currently depicted as being fairly weak, reducing the chances of Dorian missing the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast.

Bear in mind that the system is a long way out and there are MANY scenarios and opinions of what the future will bring.  We will continue to monitor this one several times a day.  Timing is everything.  The general conditions are not the greatest for strong tropical development at this time.  Looking at the big picture, overall conditions will shift about the 1st of August.

Locally, we are having great diving weather.

Capt. Steve Willis
Professional Scuba Bum‚ĄĘ
Aboard S/V Escape

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