PROGRAM

The programs at the Florida Sea Base are running at full capacity and all is well.  The “disappointing” headline refers to personal woes.  I finally got Escape off the dock yesterday to try out the new/used propellor.  It was a monumental effort to find the prop and get in on in the water.  The prop did not perform well.  So now the hunt resumes.

Back to program (I apologize for the digression).  As always, Sunday was a big scuba arrival/departure day (seven crews in, seven crews out).  The sailing department was operating at maximum capacity with five arrivals, five departures, five shore leave crews and a Sea Exploring crew on base.  Of course, most of the participants are scattered through the Straits of Florida and Florida Bay.  There are only 33 days left until the last of the Scouts have departed the Florida Sea Base for the summer.

WEATHER

[I wrote this paragraph before going to bed last night after the 20:00 (8 pm) updates.]  The remnants of Dorian (now designated Invest 91L) flared up a bit early Sunday morning but then fizzled again.  The Florida Sea Base is in the projected path of the remnants and (as expected) we will probably get a little wind and rain from the system on Wednesday and/or Thursday.  Conditions should be no worse than a typical thunderstorm, maybe less.  Program will not be cancelled nor significantly impacted.

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Just to show how volatile our tropical weather threats can be, here’s what the National Hurricane Center posted at 02:00 this morning.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS 
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RECENT
SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
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And the forecast track has changed, but still has the system plowing through the Keys.

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If you read this blog frequently you know we check the tropical updates several times a day.  I am watching The Weather Channel while preparing this post (per usual).  I have been on the NHC site, Weather Underground, Hurricane Tracker, Accuweather, Intellicast, and NWS site this morning while the coffee was making.  I carry my iPad with me throughout the day so I can check at each scheduled update time and receive push notifications in the event I miss an update.  (Sometimes I’m busy.)  The point being, we are watching this closely and will take all necessary precautions.  We still except rain and wind but no significant interruption to program.

Our local weather was hot with gentle breezes and mostly clear skies Sunday.  We did have a threat of morning showers in the forecast but they did not develop.  Today’s forecast is almost identical to yesterday’s with a little better chance of a morning shower.

Capt. Steve Willis
Professional Scuba Bum™
Aboard S/V Escape

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