Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s blog by Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground:
Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph.Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 – 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loopsshow a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm’s low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm’s center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 – 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 – 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L’s deterioration.
Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today’s mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 – 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning’s 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 – 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.
Two key points; the system is not likely to develop into an organized wind event and we may get some rain tomorrow through the weekend. Of thirteen computer models, one has the center of the system crossing the Keys at Key West, another about mid-way between the Florida Sea Base and the Brinton Environmental Center and another crossing in Key Largo. That’s a 23% chance of the storm center crossing through the Florida Keys. Or, better yet, that’s a 77% chance that the system will NOT cut through the Keys. Hope for the best! Rain would make for a very sloppy inspection not to mention disgruntled participants. Click HERE for a really cool visual.
If you click on my weather page you will see a monthly chart for air temperature, water temperature and rainfall. Summer is our rainy season with an average of 5.1 inches falling in June. July is a little less and then the numbers are back up for August and September.
The BSA Visitation Team arrives today and starts the camp inspection process this evening. While Captain Paul Beal and Mr. Rob Kolb are working with the inspectors, Capt. Rich and I will be attending a meeting in Marathon about Monroe County implementing restrictions and/or fees on vessels anchoring. More fees and more government intrusion is not what we need, but it is what we will likely get. Oh joy!
Stress is an interesting beast. It is not well understood and therefore not well managed. For me it manifests as nightmares. The only good news I can find in my situation is this post will be waiting for many of you when you get up this morning. I should be finished with the post by 0300. I am on my way to see my fat doctor later this morning. The drive takes about 2 hours 15 minutes each way. I have a little less than 30 pounds to loose to reach my original goal. Now I’m starting to wonder if I should adjust my goal down another 15 pounds. This diet is miserable, but it’s working and I should take full advantage of it. (In November I was barely able to squeeze into 42″ pants. Now 36s are getting loose and I should be in 34s next month.) I may compromise and take a little while off the diet after hitting my goal and then work on another 15 pounds.
Due to the hullabaloo associated with the camp inspection, I may not have time to post early in the morning on Thursday or Friday. I will do my best. Of course I may be awake all night and have plenty of time.
Capt. Steve Willis
Aboard S/V Escape